How legal professionals were manipulated by a roll of dice! | Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
Yes, that’s true. Legal professionals were not only manipulated but also sentenced harsher punishments just by a roll of the dice. So what’s the catch? Were they drugged or just corrupted? No. It was achieved in an unsettling cognitive psychology experiment. Three researchers, Englich, Mussweiler and Stratch (2006), wanted to test the universal effect of the phenomenon Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic which is common in impulsive buyers. So, what unites professional prosecutors with years of experience and impulsive consumerist making purchases online?
Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: The theory of manipulation
Let’s consider you want to buy a used car and so contact a salesman. You being naive to the domain of used cars, the salesman quotes an absurd high amount than the fair price of the car. This initial amount becomes the Anchor, from here you can negotiate or Adjust but you’ll inevitably pay higher than the market value.
This phenomenon, or heuristic in cognitive psychology, is called as Anchoring and Adjustment heuristic. (For more detail.) And is a form of manipulation which takes place passively, or subconsciously. The individual makes all their decision based on the initial information (anchor) he has received. This information can be true. Or not.
So if legal professionals are given random data about the tenure of sentences (anchor) pertaining to a crime, will it affect court decisions?
Experiment: The roll of a dice!
In this research, the participants picked were highly experienced, legal professionals and seasoned judges. They were asked to read a realistic court case and then learn the prison sentences recommended for the defendant (anchor). But they weren’t told the source of these recommendations.
So who suggested these sentences? Of course, a dice!
The suggestions were collected from three different sources:
- Journalist: A person who had no legal training in announcing sentences. Just mere speculation – like you and me would.
- Dice: The sentences were randomly generated by rolling a dice and had no correlation with the crime.
- Judges: Finally, the sentences were recommended by an experienced prosecutor. This is our control group.
Some recommended sentences were lenient (a couple of months of social service), while others were harsher (a year in jail for the same crime). After learning these suggestions or Anchors, these “experienced” legal participants made their own recommendations.
The obvious thing to expect is that the sentences suggested by the participating judges should not be affected by these anchors, e.g what the dice turned to. But.
But the recommendations, or the anchor, did have a significant effect on these legal professionals. The judges’ sentences were harsher with a harsh anchor and lenient with a lenient anchor. Also, it did not matter what was the source of these anchors, a journalist or merely a dice.
That’s disturbing! If the experienced legal prosecutors with years of experience can be manipulated by Anchoring and Adjustment using a dice, then where do we stand?
Can’t big firms easily manipulate the general masses using such heuristics? Yes, they can. And they do. “Surprise!”
You think you are immune to the manipulation? Well.
Have you felt the urge to shop when the brands push the word SALE? or when in their marketing, brands strike out a big hefty price and instead discount it by 30-50%? The initial price becomes an anchor, a big one, and when you get the same thing after some adjustment you feel you’re getting a deal.
The truth is just that they are clearing up their large stocks pilled up because of fast fashion. (You should learn about it, a dark dark side of clothing. One reason it flourishes is because of our impulsive buying habits.) Once the brands have your attention, they try to upsell (buy 2 get an extra 20% discount). Most people fall for it and end up spending more if it wasn’t for a “SALE”. Stock cleared, and increased sales. A win-win. For brands.
Why does Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristics work? And what can you do?
It’s a very effective form of manipulation which starts even before the negotiation begins and works behind the curtains – subconsciously, without you being aware you’re manipulated. Scary!
Although we make adjustments to the initial anchor, these adjustments aren’t sufficient to overcome the initial impact of the anchor. So we need to be prepared with facts, like knowing the fair price of the used car, only then we can subdue the effect of anchor, make suitable adjustments; maybe also create our own anchor.
Even simply by acknowledging the phenomenon, we can be better prepared for anchors in our daily lives. Knowledge is power they say. True they say.